The Monroe Doctrine: A Return of the Bad Neighbor
The Return of the Bad Neighbor
The Monroe Doctrine, a cornerstone of US foreign policy, has made a comeback under President Trump's second term. This doctrine, which asserts the United States' dominance over the Western Hemisphere, has been a source of controversy and tension in the region for centuries. But here's where it gets controversial...
The Geopolitical Mix
The Trump administration's return to the Monroe Doctrine is a result of a volatile mix of geopolitical, hemispheric, and local politics. The world's largest reserves of fossil fuels, particularly in Venezuela, have shifted the focus of US foreign policy towards the region. The US intends to boost economic growth by reducing energy costs, a strategy that has been successful in the past.
The American Public and the Turnip Truck Rubes
Meanwhile, the Trump administration treats the American public like turnip truck rubes, blowing smoke behind the curtain regarding drugs and DEA arrests. While Venezuela is a major exporter of illicit substances to the United States, the focus is on reducing energy costs and promoting the AI boom, which the US intends to lead. Oil-laden tankers departing from Venezuela en route to China are not part of the program.
The Good Neighbor Policy and the 21st Century
Latin America had roughly two decades of reduced attention from its weakening, yet nonetheless still powerful, northern neighbor in the 21st century. The US partially disengaged from Latin America with Dick Cheney's 2003 war on Iraq. After all, one can only do so many things. When Cheney wasn't shooting hunting companions in the face with demands for apologies thereafter, his focus was limited chiefly to two places, Iraq and Russia.
The Monroe Doctrine and the US' Bad Neighbor History
The Monroe Doctrine is a continuation of the twin movements of conquest and revolt against empire in play from the US' birth. Americans grew weary of rule from abroad in 1776, which included their demands for ever more seizure of land from indigenous peoples. The Crown disapproved, for settler conquest created no shortage of 'Indian Wars' for which they bore the cost. The Monroe Doctrine was a bold declaration by John Quincy Adams in 1823 that the hemisphere belonged to the United States' sphere of influence.
The Impact of the Monroe Doctrine's Return
What can we expect from the return of the Monroe Doctrine?
We can play Taps for International Law that previously was already ill.
Cuba's government likely can't survive. Mortally wounded and with social pathologies (e.g., street crime formally absent) laid over its poverty, its government likely falls. Marco Rubio and Trump are taking the victory lap with Florida's substantial Cuban émigré community.
Latin American leaders are put on notice. Uncle Sam has returned to its historic norm of exercising dominance over the hemisphere. Latin American leaders will exercise caution in dealings with or joining the BRICS. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world outside the Americas and Europe will run toward inclusion in the BRICS.
China increasingly will see the US as aggressive, if not deranged. The Middle Kingdom will likely further develop its already substantial defensive capacities. If the US decides to force the issue of Taiwan's future status, China may respond with a blockade of the island.
Russia will expect a quid pro quo from Washington on spheres of influence. Yet, Trump's successful removal of Maduro will leave some in Russia asking if they needlessly endured a 4-year-long war of aggression against Ukraine (yes, the Kremlin was endlessly provoked, but, nonetheless, the aggressor).
