Mid-East Crude Slumps to Two-Month Lows vs Brent
Prices for key Middle East crudes have fallen to their weakest levels against Brent in about two months, signaling an oversupplied market as supply from the region and the Americas rises while demand remains lackluster. The premium of Abu Dhabi’s Murban over Brent has narrowed in recent weeks, hitting its lowest point since early October, according to Bloomberg estimates.
In Dubai, the Brent-Dubai EFS spread—the gap between light, sweet Brent and the medium sour Dubai crude—has widened to its largest in seven weeks. This broad discount reflects ample global supply and suggests the Middle East, along with other regions, has more crude available than world buyers currently need, including Asia.
Following softer spot values for Middle East benchmarks, Saudi Arabia moved January pricing for Asian buyers lower, aiming to defend market share as OPEC+ increases output through December. Saudi Arabia also boosts its production the most among quota holders, reinforcing a year of anticipated oversupply.
Looking ahead, most investment banks anticipate Brent averaging below $60 per barrel next year, with WTI trading even lower, as global supply–demand dynamics tilt toward surplus. ING’s Warren Patterson cautioned that the oil surplus could widen in 2026 after OPEC+ began unwinding cuts faster than expected, with non-OPEC supply also projected to grow despite this year’s price softness.
Source: Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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