Buckle up, college football fans—the College Football Playoff rankings are about to get even more intense, and this week's shake-up could redefine who's in and who's out!
As we gear up for The Athletic's live coverage of the latest 2025 College Football Playoff rankings release (check it out here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/live-blogs/college-football-playoff-rankings-live-updates-week-13-predictions-results/hTsOkIqTifLe/), today marks the final Tuesday of the regular season. That means the selection committee is dropping another Top 25 list, bringing us tantalizingly closer to the all-important rankings on December 7th. So, what's the forecast for Tuesday night's reveal at 7 ET on ESPN? I'm diving back in with my Playoff projections model (find it here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6560541/2025/11/23/college-football-playoff-bracket-projections-odds/) to predict what the committee might decide, especially after a pretty straightforward weekend in college football.
Last time around, the committee bucked my model's trends (as detailed in this article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6815394/2025/11/18/college-football-playoff-rankings-predictions-alabama-texas-notre-dame/), favoring Notre Dame over Alabama and Texas ahead of Michigan (more on that here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6818569/2025/11/18/college-football-playoff-third-rankings-top-25-2/). Notre Dame's dominant victory against Syracuse (read about it here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6830157/2025/11/23/notre-dame-football-syracuse-depth/) has now catapulted them past Alabama in my projections, so I'm betting on some alignment this week. Michigan, however, keeps its edge over Texas in my system, right before their massive clash with top-dog Ohio State (preview here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6829931/2025/11/23/michigan-ohio-state-rivalry-football-maryland/).
Overall, this was my toughest week yet for nailing the committee's picks—particularly because I overlooked their choice for the top Group of 5 spot (I predicted North Texas, but they went with Tulane). Time to refine the model! But here's where it gets controversial—how much weight should we give to a team's strength of schedule versus their head-to-head wins? It's a debate that divides fans and analysts alike.
Let's take a look at what my updated model anticipates for the November 25 rankings:
Projected CFP Top 25 after Week 13
Rank | Team | Record | SOR | SOS
---|---|---|---|---
1 | Ohio State (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/ohio-state-buckeyes-college-football/) | 11-0 | 3 | 75
2 | Indiana (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/indiana-hoosiers-college-football/) | 11-0 | 2 | 45
3 | Texas A&M (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/texas-a-m-aggies-college-football/) | 11-0 | 1 | 16
4 | Georgia (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/georgia-bulldogs-college-football/) | 10-1 | 4 | 22
5 | Texas Tech (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/texas-tech-red-raiders-college-football/) | 10-1 | 8 | 48
6 | Oregon (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/oregon-ducks-college-football/) | 10-1 | 7 | 49
7 | Ole Miss (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/ole-miss-rebels-college-football/) | 10-1 | 6 | 27
8 | Oklahoma (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/oklahoma-sooners-college-football/) | 9-2 | 10 | 12
9 | Notre Dame (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/notre-dame-fighting-irish-college-football/) | 9-2 | 11 | 35
10 | Alabama (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/alabama-crimson-tide-college-football/) | 9-2 | 9 | 14
11 | BYU (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/byu-cougars-college-football/) | 10-1 | 5 | 29
12 | Vanderbilt (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/vanderbilt-commodores-college-football/) | 9-2 | 12 | 21
13 | Utah (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/utah-utes-college-football/) | 9-2 | 15 | 51
14 | Miami (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/miami-hurricanes-college-football/) | 9-2 | 13 | 40
15 | Michigan (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/michigan-wolverines-college-football/) | 9-2 | 14 | 50
16 | Texas (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/texas-longhorns-college-football/) | 8-3 | 22 | 5
17 | USC (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/usc-trojans-college-football/) | 8-3 | 20 | 24
18 | Virginia (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/virginia-cavaliers-college-football/) | 9-2 | 18 | 77
19 | Tennessee (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/tennessee-volunteers-college-football/) | 8-3 | 21 | 28
20 | North Texas (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/north-texas-mean-green-college-football/) | 10-1 | 30 | 119
21 | Georgia Tech (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/georgia-tech-yellow-jackets-college-football/) | 9-2 | 17 | 78
22 | James Madison (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/james-madison-dukes-college-football/) | 10-1 | 32 | 120
23 | Tulane (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/tulane-green-wave-college-football/) | 9-2 | 16 | 72
24 | SMU (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/smu-mustangs-college-football/) | 8-3 | 26 | 66
25 | Pitt (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/college-football/team/pittsburgh-panthers-college-football/) | 8-3 | 25 | 62
Next five: Arizona State, Arizona, Washington, Navy, Missouri
(For beginners, SOR stands for Strength of Record, which measures how tough a team's wins are, and SOS is Strength of Schedule, evaluating the quality of opponents faced—both are crucial metrics in these rankings.)
Biggest questions: Could Miami or Vanderbilt leapfrog Utah? And what about Texas and Michigan?
The playoff bubble is incredibly tight this year (as seen in the Week 13 scores here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6830302/2025/11/23/college-football-scores-results-week-13/), meaning some squads are bound to feel overlooked on selection day. In my projections, Vanderbilt (who was 14th last week) edges out Miami (13th) with a stronger overall profile, and both trailed Utah (12th) previously. Miami handled Virginia Tech on the road with a 34-17 win, while Vanderbilt cruised past Kentucky 45-17. Utah, on the other hand, struggled defensively, allowing 472 rushing yards and needing a last-minute rally to beat Kansas State (details here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6829693/2025/11/22/utah-college-football-playoff-bubble-kansas-state/) as heavy favorites on Saturday.
And this is the part most people miss—will these results sway the committee enough to reshuffle the pack? Vanderbilt can't clinch the SEC title, so their shot at a playoff spot hinges on upsetting Tennessee this Saturday and securing an at-large bid. Miami has a slim 4 percent chance (per my model: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6560541/2025/11/23/college-football-playoff-bracket-projections-odds/) to grab the ACC crown, but they're likely banking on an at-large as well. With the season's last weekend full of potential upsets, beating Pitt and Tennessee on the road might not seal the deal—but it could give these teams a confidence boost going into the finals.
In my view, a road win over Tennessee would give Vanderbilt the most impressive resume of the trio, though the committee has historically ranked the Commodores lower than I do. Now, imagine if there's a twist—could the committee's preference for certain conferences play a bigger role than raw performance? It's a hot-button topic among fans who argue about bias in selections.
Beyond these three, Texas (17th) and Michigan (18th) are poised to climb after Texas edged Michigan last week, and both USC and Georgia Tech dropped games in Week 13. Texas faces No. 3 Texas A&M on Friday, while Michigan takes on No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday—a victory for either could transform their playoff resumes. Could they vault ahead of Miami, Vanderbilt, and Utah? It's uncertain; Texas has three losses but did defeat Vanderbilt. The playoff race is razor-thin, and in a wild scenario, Michigan could still claim the Big Ten title by toppling Ohio State. If they need an at-large, how these five land in Tuesday's rankings will be critical.
What a 12-team bracket might look like
This bracket simulation is derived from the projected November 25 committee rankings. Check out my full final bracket projections here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6560541/2025/11/23/college-football-playoff-bracket-projections-odds/.
Nov 25, 2025
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What do you think—do these projections align with your expectations, or are there teams here that should be higher or lower? Is the committee's selection process fair, or does it overlook deserving underdogs? And here's a controversial angle: Should teams from smaller conferences get more leeway in the rankings to promote diversity, even if it means bumping powerhouse programs? Share your opinions in the comments—I'm eager to hear why you agree or disagree!
